5
Aretha
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 98
Woodbine · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Woodbine | Sahin Civaci | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | BHA110 | 5th | 12th | −6 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 39/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -22.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 10/10/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |