7
Pharoah's Affair
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 93
Woodbine · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | Irving Moncada | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 62/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 1/3 | 98% | 60% | -0.38 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 10/10/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |