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4

Tap My Desire

5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 83

Woodbine · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 25/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 85 · 7f Fas 124 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 85 par25/10C6OR 85C6 @ Woodbine 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 7f Fas 124 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Woodbine 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 78 · 7f Fas 124 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 78 par23/05C7OR 78C7 @ Woodbine 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 78 · 7f110y Fm 124 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Woodbine 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 1m 124 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 78 par4/07C7OR 78C7 @ Woodbine 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 7f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Woodbine 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 81 · 7f Fm 124 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 81 par20/08C7OR 81C7 @ Woodbine 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 83 parC7 @ Woodbine 01/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 83 · 7f Fm 122 · below its mark01/10/2026 · OR 83 par1/10C7OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01WoodbineKeveh Nicholls?2nd3rd−1
2026-09-12WoodbineKeveh Nicholls?3rd4th−1
2026-08-20WoodbineKeveh Nicholls?3rd4th−1
2026-07-18WoodbineKeveh Nicholls?1st2nd−1
2026-07-04WoodbineKeveh Nicholls?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-11WoodbineKeveh Nicholls?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1011/0620/081/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20256th14/126%38%+0.11
03/05/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
23/05/20263rd15/261%82%+0.21
11/06/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
04/07/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
18/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
20/08/20263rd11/486%75%-0.11
12/09/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03
01/10/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40