Katie's Grace
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 99
Woodbine · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | BHA94 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | Austin Adams | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 27/09/2026 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 20% | -0.75 |