7
Vanity
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Woodbine | Emma Jayne Wilson | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | Luan Machado | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | Florent Geroux | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 88/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 18/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/10/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |