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16:08 · Yarmouth

Price Bailey LLP Norwich 'Confined' Handicap

5f 42yGood to FirmClass 64YO plusTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 552/1
Papa Don't Preach silks

The Kevin Frost Racing Club

Papa Don't Preach

★★★★★

7yo Gelding · 9-9

Kodiac - Paella (Oasis Dream)

Billy Loughnane90%0/1Course★K Frost
355393
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓4
Hood

Gained a deserved win at Wolverhampton (5f) in December. Gone close on several occasions on turf since and made a solid return from 10 weeks off when third at Doncaster (5f, firm) 2 weeks ago. Below last winning mark and very interesting with Billy Loughnane an eye-catching booking.

Class Advantage

11/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/02 · mark par11/022/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/03 · mark par28/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par18/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par9/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par18/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 17%Dist: 5f 42y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 60%11/02Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 60%28/03Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 71%Pos 9 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 9 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 0%9/05Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 50%18/07
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
3
OR 559/2
Mart silks

River Racing & Partners

Mart

★★★

5yo Gelding · 9-9

Dark Angel - Adorn (Kyllachy)

Ryan Kavanagh70%−3lbD Donovan70%
754364
5.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

On a losing run but gave hope he can buck that trend when third over 6f here in June. Only sixth in a better race next time but far from disgraced when fourth of 7 in handicap back here (1m) last month. Tongue strap goes on now starting out for new yard and the betting can guide.

Class Advantage

25/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/03 · mark par25/0327/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below27/04 · mark par26/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above26/05 · mark par10/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/06 · mark par19/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par2/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par2/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 33%Dist: 5f 42y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 45%25/03Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 73%26/05Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%19/06Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%2/07
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
2
OR 539/4
Dragon God silks

Stoneleigh Racing Lll

Dragon God

★★★★

4yo Colt · 9-7

Territories - Afrodita (Montjeu)

Tom Marquand70%A W Carroll
336523
5.0Going 8.0

Headstrong type who bounced back to form when second of 6 in handicap at Chepstow (5f) in June. Not seen to best effect having met with trouble when third over same C&D 17 days ago and he's an interesting runner with booking of Tom Marquand an obvious plus.

Class Advantage

25/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par25/047/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/05 · mark par21/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par4/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par27/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par16/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par16/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 83%Dist: 5f 42y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 78%25/04Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 80%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 55%21/05Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 80%27/06Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 33%16/07
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
5
OR 457/1
Nad Alshiba Snow silks

The Calm Partnership

Nad Alshiba Snow

★★

4yo Filly · 8-13

Oasis Dream - Lizzie Siddal (Dansili)

Gina Mangan60%M Murphy
554350
3.0Class ↓5
Tongue strap

Long-standing maiden who fared no better than previously this season eased in grade in classified company at Wolverhampton (5f) in June. Had breathing operation since but still hard to fancy.

Class Advantage

22/12 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/12 · mark par22/1214/01 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/01 · mark par9/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/04 · mark par28/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/04 · mark par19/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par1/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par1/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to FirmDist: 5f 42y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 33%22/12Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 20%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 63%9/04Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 71%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 67%19/05Pos 10 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 10 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 10%1/06
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
4
OR 4822/1
Antiphon silks

Mr Jim Gill

Antiphon

★★★

7yo Gelding · 9-2

Kodiac - Freedom's Light (Galileo)

Marco Ghiani60%M Murphy70%
333903
4.0Class ↓4
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Losing run stretches back well over 2 years but he did post easily his most encouraging effort of the present campaign when third at Nottingham (5f) 16 days ago, leading until final 1f and no extra only late on. Task is to back that up.

Class Advantage

29/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/09 · mark par29/097/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/10 · mark par16/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/10 · mark par8/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par29/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par17/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 67%Dist: 5f 42y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 71%29/09Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%Pos 3 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 67%16/10Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 25%29/06Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 71%17/07
Projected finish5th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength30%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
6
OR 4850/1
Regal Guest silks

John Guest Racing

Regal Guest

★

4yo Gelding · 9-2

Kodiac - Odyssee (Teofilo)

S De SousaG G Margarson
750676
3.0Class ↓4

Lightly raced and has achieved nothing in 4 handicaps this season, dropping away over 2f out tackling 1m here latest. Plenty to prove down significantly in trip with cheekpieces now discarded.

Class Advantage

18/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/0427/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below27/06 · mark par28/02 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/02 · mark par16/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par28/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/05 · mark par8/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below8/07 · mark par8/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 33%Dist: 5f 42y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 25%18/04Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%28/02Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 25%28/05Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%8/07
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
7
OR 4566/1
Surprise Again silks

Mr M Isa

Surprise Again

★

4yo Gelding · 8-13

Iffraaj - Last Surprise (No Nay Never)

Jonny PeateJ R Jenkins60%
070078
2.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

Down the field all 4 starts during a light 2025 campaign and offered little after 8 months off at Nottingham (6f) in June. Tongue strap goes on.

Class Advantage

9/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/0827/02 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par22/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/09 · mark par3/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par3/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength55%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 33%Dist: 5f 42y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 10%9/08Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 14 · SP 400/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 400/1 | Actual: 0%7/04Pos 11 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 11 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 9%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 25%22/09Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 13%3/06
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
ExpectedActualTrend