15:54 · Ripon

Queen Ethelburga's Collegiate Handicap

1mGoing TBCClass 63YO onlyTURFHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 6411/4
Vega's Virtue silks

Mr T A Scothern & Partner

3yo Filly · 9-8

Lucky Vega - Grace And Virtue (Iffraaj)

D Fentiman1/3T D Easterby60%
751381
8.0
Cheek pieces

Both career successes have come over C&D, the first in May and the latest just over 2 weeks ago in 7-runner handicap. Her head carriage has come under question and an 8 lb rise makes things tougher but clearly can't be ruled out at this venue.

Class Advantage

2/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par2/0517/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par28/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/05 · mark par13/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par18/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 25%2/05Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%28/05Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 71%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 22%3/07Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%18/07
Projected finish1st of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
Market Fav2
OR 606/4
Amber Hamur silks

Mrs Doreen M Swinburn

3yo Filly · 9-4

Saxon Warrior - Yellowhammer (Raven's Pass)

Connor Beasley60%1/1E Bethell
554621
7.0

Previously with George Boughey and made a fine start for this yard when a close second at Beverley in July before going one better at Hamilton 8 days later, albeit having the run of the race and probably fortunate. Still unexposed over this trip however and could defy a 3 lb rise.

Class Advantage

5/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/1120/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/03 · mark par5/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/05 · mark par3/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par11/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 50%5/11Pos 5 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%30/03Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 44%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 83%3/07Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%11/07
Projected finish2nd of 8
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
3
OR 654/1
Dacres Cross silks

Mr J Speight & Mr M Holdsworth

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Prince Of Lir - Shahaama (Showcasing)

Shane Gray60%0/1K A Ryan
076045
4.0Class ↓4

A fair 6f juvenile winner who stepped up markedly on his reappearance when fourth in 20-runner York handicap in May. Was at much shorter odds with his sights lowered but failed to improve when fifth at Catterick (7f, firm) since. Steps up to 1m and is on a handy mark if bouncing back and staying.

Class Advantage

20/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/0812/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par6/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/10 · mark par26/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/04 · mark par23/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par8/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par8/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength74%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 17 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 11%20/08Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 44%6/10Pos 11 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 11 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 84%23/05Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%8/07
Projected finish3rd of 8
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
4
OR 584/1
Hey Havana silks

Tom Goodair & Jimmy Kay

3yo Gelding · 9-2

Havana Grey - Deep Impression (Footstepsinthesand)

C Lee70%0/1G A Harker
432525
5.0Class ↓4

Resumed from 6 months off with an improved second for new yard (formerly with Nigel Tinkler) at Wetherby in May and has remained in good form since without improving.

Class Advantage

4/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/10 · mark par4/107/11 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/11 · mark par18/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par15/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/06 · mark par19/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par6/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par6/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 57%4/10Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 89%18/05Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 2 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 89%19/06Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 56%6/07
Projected finish4th of 8
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength60%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
5
OR 6312/1
Sailor's Return silks

Car Colston Hall Stud

3yo Filly · 9-7

Soldier Hollow - Closing Bell (Siyouni)

D Tudhope60%0/2D O'Meara80%
944660
3.0

Showed fair form without winning in France and shaped quite well on her first 2 starts in Britain. May have found the race coming too soon when failing to beat a rival at Carlisle (7f, firm, 12/1) 25 days ago and is down in class here after some help from the handicapper.

Class Advantage

21/01 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/015/02 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a16/03 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a15/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par9/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/07 · mark par9/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength72%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 20%21/01Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 79%16/03Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 44%3/07Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%9/07
Projected finish5th of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength53%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
6
OR 61150/1
Tago Mago silks

Made Profiles Ltd & S England

3yo Filly · 9-5

Bolt D'oro - She's All Ready (Girolamo)

O J Orr60%S England70%
387
3.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

Sold cheaply following a promising debut for Jamie Osborne last autumn and has been well beaten on both starts for this yard recently. The tongue tie goes on and she looks to have work to do from this opening mark.

Class Advantage

29/09 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/0915/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/067/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength70%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 71%29/09Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 30%15/06Pos 7 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 25%7/07
Projected finish6th of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength6%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
8
OR 5225/1
Itszaboy silks

The Crawford Society

3yo Gelding · 8-10

Ubettabelieveit - Violette Szabo (Excelebration)

Alex Jary0/1−3lbN Tinkler
577066
3.0

Modest maiden who fared little better when sixth of 7 in handicap at Beverley (8.5f, good to firm) last month. Has work to do.

Class Advantage

4/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/1017/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/04 · C6 · finish vs mark below20/04 · mark par19/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par3/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par3/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move1
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 0%4/10Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 7 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 25%27/10Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 9%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 44%19/06Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 17%3/07
Projected finish7th of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength33%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
7
OR 6222/1
Scheffler silks

Dubelem (racing) Limited

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Starman - Rostedan (Verglas)

J Garritty60%0/1Adrian Nicholls60%
39904
3.0
Cheek pieces

Failed to go on from a promising debut third at Lingfield for Richard Hughes and hasn't beaten a rival in 2 starts for current yard. Easy to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage

27/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/0317/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par16/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below16/07 · mark par16/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%27/03Pos 9 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 9 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 0%17/04Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 27%28/04Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%9/06Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%16/07
Projected finish8th of 8
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength4%
ExpectedActualTrend