3
Bowling Blue
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 61
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 16/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |