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17:10 · Saratoga

Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1

2m 3fGoing TBC4YO plusTURFHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
Market Fav2
9/4
Roja Redemption silks

Riverdee Stable

Roja Redemption

6yo Gelding · 10-2

Flintshire - Desired Effect (Desirio)

Freddie Procter60%Jack Fisher
122213
7.0

Class Advantage

21/09 · C8 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/0917/10 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/10 · mark par8/11 · C8 · finish vs mark below8/11 · mark par13/06 · C7 · finish vs mark below13/06 · mark par17/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a13/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%21/09Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 89%8/11Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 83%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 100%17/07Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 67%13/08
Projected finish1st of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
Top Pick1
11/2
Mctigue silks

Irvin Naylor

Mctigue

7yo Gelding · 11-2

Fracas - Tradfest (High Chaparral)

Graham Watters70%1/1Cyril Murphy60%
311371
8.0Class ↓1

Class Advantage

26/12 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a26/124/03 · C2 · finish vs mark below4/03 · mark par2/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/08 · mark par23/08 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a3/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a5/07 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a5/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 20%26/12Pos 13 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 13 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 20%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%2/08Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%3/06Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%5/07
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
3
10/3
Fil Dor silks

Del Rio Racing Llc

Fil Dor

8yo Gelding · 11-4

Doctor Dino - La Turbale (Ange Gabriel)

Conor Tierney60%0/1Richard Hendriks60%
236
4.0Going 10.0Class ↓1

Class Advantage

19/01 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below19/01 · mark par19/015/02 · C15 · finish vs mark below5/02 · mark par1/03 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/03 · mark par20/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/04 · mark par2/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/07 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a5/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%19/01Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%1/03Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 80%2/09Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 17%5/07
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
4
11/2
St James The Great silks

Serio Racing Stables, Usa Steeplechase, R And K Racing Llc, Willis, Paul And Willis, Molly

St James The Great

5yo Gelding · 10-6

Catholic Boy - That's A Lady (City Zip)

Stephen Mulqueen0/2Keri Brion
162473
5.0Class ↓1

Class Advantage

27/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/07 · mark par27/0722/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below22/06 · mark par30/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par27/08 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a5/07 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a5/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength3%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 88%27/07Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 17%22/06Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 57%27/08Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%5/07
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
5
7/2
Smart Uncle silks

Mrs S K Johnston, Jr

Smart Uncle

6yo Gelding · 10-2

Uncle Mo - Smart Together (Smart Strike)

Jamie Bargary60%Jack Fisher
513643
5.0

Class Advantage

13/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below13/08 · mark par13/081/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par19/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/10 · mark par13/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par31/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par9/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength16%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 89%13/08Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 91%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 71%19/10Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%31/08Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 71%9/07
Projected finish5th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
7
11/2
Salted Carmel silks

Leipers Fork Steeplechase

Salted Carmel

5yo Gelding · 10-2

Kitten's Joy - Sailonsilvergirl (Mizzen Mast)

Harrison Beswick60%Keri Brion
526274
4.0

Class Advantage

6/06 · C7 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par6/063/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par30/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below30/07 · mark par31/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par3/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/10 · mark par29/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par29/06projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%6/06Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 88%30/07Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 86%3/10Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%29/06
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
6
12/1
L'avvocato silks

Hard Game Llc

L'avvocato

7yo Gelding · 10-2

Frankel - After Dawn (Invincible Spirit)

Jack Power60%0/1Katherine Neilson
944383
5.0Going 9.0

Class Advantage

12/08 · C6 · finish vs mark n/a12/085/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par24/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a21/06 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a21/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%12/08Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 45%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%16/07Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%13/08Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 78%21/06
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
8
9/1
Take Your Seats silks

Leipers Fork Steeplechase

Take Your Seats

5yo Gelding · 10-4

Too Darn Hot - Tarayef (Teofilo)

Evan Dwan0/3Thomas Garner
451434
4.0

Class Advantage

8/01 · C9 · finish vs mark above8/01 · mark par8/0121/02 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/02 · mark par17/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par7/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par5/07 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a5/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲5
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%8/01Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 86%17/07Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 67%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 33%11/09Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%5/07
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend