4
Elite Miss
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 54
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength70%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-29 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 26/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |