6
Elusive Sionna
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 55
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |