1
Spatula
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 69
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/11
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |