5
Weather Beater
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 57
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/7
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |