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Joel's Boy

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 70

Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Charles Town 21/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 7f Fas 124 · below its mark21/03/2025 · OR 73 par21/03C6OR 73C9 @ Charles Town 18/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 7f 124 · below its mark18/07/2025 · OR 65 parC6 @ Charles Town 02/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 66 · 6f110y Slo 124 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 66 par2/08C6OR 66C6 @ Charles Town 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 69 · 6f110y 124 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 69 parC6 @ Charles Town 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f110y 126 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 68 par26/04C6OR 68C6 @ Charles Town 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 66 · 7f Fas 126 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 66 parC6 @ Charles Town 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 67 · 6f110y 126 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 67 par6/06C6OR 67C9 @ Colonial Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 68 · 1m Slo 124 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 68 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 6f110y 124 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 70 par24/07C6OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Colonial Downs?5th5th0
2026-06-28Colonial Downs?4th7th−3
2026-06-06Charles Town?4th4th0
2026-05-17Charles Town?2nd2nd0
2026-04-26Charles Town?5th5th0
2025-09-20Charles Town?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0320/096/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20257th16/116%25%+0.09
18/07/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12
02/08/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
20/09/20254th14/126%57%+0.31
26/04/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
17/05/20262nd20/10%88%+0.88
06/06/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
28/06/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
24/07/20265th40/10%43%+0.43