4
Knocking Luck
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 61
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-09-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |