2
Scar Nose
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |