5
Aravalli
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 72
Chepstow · Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 1m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |