7
Cosmo Brown
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 70
Chepstow · Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 1m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength69%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |