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Curran

5yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 74

Chepstow · Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 1m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded 2 wins from 5 starts for current yard, latterly when making the most of a good opportunity at Salisbury (1¾m). Apprentice takes over from Oisin Murphy and this looks tougher on a rare outing over 1½m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 23/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 73 · 1m6f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 73 par23/083OR 735 @ Lingfield 03/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m5f Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Chelmsford City 18/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 1m5f66y Std 140 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 73 par18/095OR 735 @ Wolverhampton 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 1m5f219y Std 139 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 71 · 1m4f Gd 131 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 71 par15/055OR 715 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 1m6f Gd 131 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 71 · 1m7f196y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 71 par27/064OR 714 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 71 · 1m6f87y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 70 · 1m6f44y Goo 142 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 70 par21/075OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Salisbury51st1st0
2026-07-11Chester45th4th+1
2026-06-27Chester46th5th+1
2026-06-05Bath51st1st0
2026-05-15Newbury514th14th0
2025-10-11Wolverhampton55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0811/1027/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20255th11/271%0%-0.71
03/09/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
18/09/20254th7/282%40%-0.42
11/10/20255th9/488%20%-0.68
15/05/202614th25/10%7%+0.07
05/06/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
27/06/20266th15/261%17%-0.44
11/07/20265th17/255%20%-0.35
21/07/20261st4/596%100%+0.04