4
Oasis Sunrise
4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 72
Chepstow · Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 1m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Chepstow | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |