3
Polemon
7yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 72
Chepstow · Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today: 5
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Newton Abbot | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-04-24 | Chepstow | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-05-15 | Clonmel | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-05-06 | Cork | BHA78 | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-04-30 | Punchestown | BHA110 | −6 | ||
| 2025-04-17 | Clonmel | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 10/01/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 31/01/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 02/03/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 76% | +0.03 |
| 14/03/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 03/04/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 17/04/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 06/05/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |