6
Virtue Diligence
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 72
Chepstow · Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 1m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | 3 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-24 | Kempton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |