Calef

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 67

Chepstow · Reecer Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f 16y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.6

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-26	Pontefract	4	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-11	Hamilton	4	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-22	Catterick	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-03	Ripon	4	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-18	Carlisle	2	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 4

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength52%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/05/2026	4th	11/1	42%	0%	-0.42
03/06/2026	4th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
22/06/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	71%	+0.24
11/07/2026	4th	4/1	79%	40%	-0.39
26/07/2026	4th	11/4	86%	40%	-0.46