4
Alkuwarrior
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 74
Chepstow · Dunraven Windows Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 5f 16y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bath | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Windsor | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 29/05/2025 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 18/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |