7
Control Room
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 69
Chepstow · Dunraven Windows Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 5f 16y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Bath | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |