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7yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 67
Chepstow · Dunraven Windows Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 5f 16y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ffos Las | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.36 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |