3
Moe's Legacy
5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 75
Chepstow · Dunraven Windows Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 5f 16y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Bath | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bath | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Bath | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |