5
Over Spiced
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 70
Chepstow · Dunraven Windows Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 5f 16y
#2
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chepstow | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |