1
Rogue Bullet
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 78
Chepstow · Dunraven Windows Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 5f 16y
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bath | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Thirsk | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 30/06/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 02/08/2025 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 31% | -0.35 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |