5
Auburn Avenue
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 68
Chepstow · Happy Birthday Colin Spencer Handicap · 1m 14y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Dundalk | BHA63 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-08-28 | Navan | BHA65 | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-08-16 | Curragh | BHA65 | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 12/06/2025 | 15th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 30% | -0.36 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |