4
Nakaaha
4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 77
Chepstow · Happy Birthday Colin Spencer Handicap · 1m 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bath | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bath | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 8% | -0.34 |
| 20/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/07/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |