Revelance
4yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 81
Chepstow · Happy Birthday Colin Spencer Handicap · 1m 14y
#2
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newmarket | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | York | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 06/11/2024 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 92% | -0.01 |
| 10/06/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 31/07/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 54% | -0.36 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |