2
Serenity Blue
4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81
Chepstow · Happy Birthday Colin Spencer Handicap · 1m 14y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newbury | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 16th | 14th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/05/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/06/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/07/2025 | 16th | 11/1 | 42% | 12% | -0.30 |
| 20/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 31% | -0.22 |
| 31/05/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |