6
Spirit Of The Bay
8yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 68
Chepstow · Happy Birthday Colin Spencer Handicap · 1m 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Ffos Las | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Bath | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 14/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 25/08/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 09/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |