7
Windbreaker
3yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 73
Chepstow · Happy Birthday Colin Spencer Handicap · 1m 14y
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/5 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |