2
Clementines Star
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 69
Chepstow · LSL Racing Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 7f 16y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/15
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Newcastle | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 17/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 91% | +0.36 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |