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4

Espona Bay

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 65

Chepstow · LSL Racing Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 7f 16y

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back on same mark as when successful in this grade at Wolverhampton (7f) in May. Had been holding his form well before paying the price for overexuberance at Lingfield (6f) last time. Will need to settle better faced with stiffer test of stamina here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 7f3y GS 130 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 65 par16/095OR 656 @ Kempton 22/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 64 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 64 par6 @ Wolverhampton 12/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 65 par12/016OR 655 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 66 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 66 par21/035OR 665 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 65 · 7f36y Std 130 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m31y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 67 par15/065OR 674 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 66 · 6f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 66 par25/074OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Lingfield45th4th+1
2026-07-17Wolverhampton43rd2nd+1
2026-06-15Windsor53rd3rd0
2026-05-18Wolverhampton51st1st0
2026-03-21Newcastle53rd3rd0
2026-03-05Newcastle54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/095/0315/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength81%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20255th4/179%43%-0.36
22/10/20252nd15/890%91%+0.01
12/01/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07
05/03/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
21/03/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
18/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
15/06/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
17/07/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
25/07/20265th2/189%0%-0.89