5
Sup Of Red
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 62
Chepstow · LSL Racing Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 7f 16y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Dundalk | BHA64 | 5th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |