Sydney Rock
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 70
Chepstow · LSL Racing Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap · 7f 16y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Leicester | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |