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Hallandale Beach

3yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 71

Chepstow · Chepstow Plant International Supports Chepstow Centenary Handicap · 6f 16y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved since sent handicapping with the tongue strap applied. Got off the mark in 6-runner handicap over C&D (good to firm) in June, smooth headway into contention and drawing clear final 1f. An 8 lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 12926/0355 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f20y Std 13317/0454 @ Doncaster 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS25/0446 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 5f212y Goo 139 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 64 par21/056OR 646 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 64 · 5f21y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 64 par15/066OR 646 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 63 · 6f16y GF 135 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 63 par27/066OR 63projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Chepstow61st2nd−1
2026-06-15Windsor63rd4th−1
2026-05-21Catterick63rd4th−1
2026-04-25Doncaster45th4th+1
2026-04-17Wolverhampton55th5th0
2026-03-26Chelmsford City54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0317/0425/0421/0515/0627/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/03/20264th9/153%70%+0.17
17/04/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
25/04/20265th17/255%43%-0.12
21/05/20263rd14/126%50%+0.24
15/06/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
27/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18