3
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3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 64
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 07/09/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |