4
Penelope's Gift
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 82
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |