8
Toot
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 60
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |