Awesome Mckinzie
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 76
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 22/06/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 17/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |