3
Chasing Sunsets
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 86
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2016 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 12/11/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 18% | -0.56 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |