8
Clowning Around
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 89
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-04-06 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 19/06/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |