5
Contra
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 69
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/04/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 01/02/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |