Dandy Vandy

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 81

Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-12	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-19	Laurel Park	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-05-22	Laurel Park	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2025-09-27	Delaware Park	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2025-09-04	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-06-05	Saratoga	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 12

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength71%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/02/2025	5th	2/1	89%	43%	-0.47
21/03/2025	2nd	8/11	96%	80%	-0.16
18/05/2025	2nd	4/1	79%	91%	+0.12
05/06/2025	7th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
04/09/2025	2nd	1/1	95%	83%	-0.11
27/09/2025	8th	7/1	63%	36%	-0.27
22/05/2026	5th	9/4	88%	33%	-0.55
19/06/2026	3rd	5/4	93%	67%	-0.27
12/07/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18