4

Eileen's A Warrior

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82

Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Gulfstream 08/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f Fas 1228/01C9C6 @ Colonial Downs 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 80 par12/03C6OR 80C7 @ Gulfstream 16/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 83 par16/04C7OR 83C8 @ Colonial Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Fm 118 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 80 par27/06C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-04-16Gulfstream?5th4th+1
2026-03-12Colonial Downs?1st-1th+2
2026-01-08Gulfstream?2nd3rd1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0112/0316/0427/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength12%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/01/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
12/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
16/04/20265th9/488%33%-0.55
27/06/20264th5/287%63%-0.24