2
Hollywood Mischief
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 73
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |